10209 Colemans Lake Rd · Dinwiddie, VA 23850

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1992 1.05 ac lot $148/sqft · 41% below area Est $248k · 41% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Dinwiddie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,927 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,718
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -41.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9813 Colemans Lake Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$246	63
9701 Colemans Lake Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,016 (+4%)	7mo	$244,500	$241	62
9800 Colemans Lake Rd	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (+11%)	19mo	$245,000	$224	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $45,995
• Equity at exit: $88,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $130,462
• Equity at exit: $157,331

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23850

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

2. 2026-05-07
   price $145,000 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

3. 2026-04-25
   status Active 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

4. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

5. 2026-01-16
   status Active 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

6. 2026-01-01
   listed $159,990 Active 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   REDUCED! With some TLC, Make this jproperty your own! 1 acre with 2 Car Garage * Sold "as-is/where-is" (Must include "As-Is" Addendum with Sales Contract) * Inspections for Information Only * No Repairs or Inspections to be done by Seller * Make your Highest & Best Offer * Seller is Negotiable * Single Wide Not Eligible for Traditional Financing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 147.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$277
• After-tax cash flow: $1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dinwiddie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 984

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.67%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $145,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $159,990 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $481 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.