240 Aran Dr

Milam, TX 75959

$95,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $409/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (13.0% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $83k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,169 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.9% in Milam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.