240 Aran Dr · Milam, TX 75959

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2004 0.26 ac lot $127/sqft · 45% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and neat as a pin with Great curb appeal. This 2B/2B Home sits on two big corner lots close to Toledo Bend Lake with approx. 1100 sq. ft. living area. Big storage building with water and electric. Walking distance to Subdivision boat ramp.

Key facts

• Toledo bend lake
• Two big corner lots
• Big storage building

Tags

• TWO BIG CORNER LOTS
• TOLEDO BEND LAKE
• BIG STORAGE BUILDING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.9% in Milam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,169 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,683 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,608
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -66.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $17,431
• Equity at exit: $46,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $54,424
• Equity at exit: $75,444

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75959

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    status Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Clean and neat as a pin with Great curb appeal. This 2B/2B Home sits on two big corner lots close to Toledo Bend Lake with approx. 1100 sq. ft. living area. Big storage building with water and electric. Walking distance to Subdivision boat ramp.

15. 2026-02-25
    status Pending 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Clean and neat as a pin with Great curb appeal. This 2B/2B Home sits on two big corner lots close to Toledo Bend Lake with approx. 1100 sq. ft. living area. Big storage building with water and electric. Walking distance to Subdivision boat ramp.

16. 2026-01-13
    listed $95,000 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Clean and neat as a pin with Great curb appeal. This 2B/2B Home sits on two big corner lots close to Toledo Bend Lake with approx. 1100 sq. ft. living area. Big storage building with water and electric. Walking distance to Subdivision boat ramp.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$64/mo · 78.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$794
• − Management: −$794
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$1,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Milam

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1169
• US rank: #20453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 842

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 91.8797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-25 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $95,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $976 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.