2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,584 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Condo
· Active
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,948/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,777
Tax + insurance
−$714
HOA
−$948
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$619
Net cashflow
$-2,110/mo
Annual
$-25,317/yr
Cap rate
1.51%
Cash-on-cash
-17.08%
DSCR
0.24
1% rule
0.56%
Cash to close
$148,260
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $530k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (70.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (44.3% below list).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($498k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $157k (70.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,050 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A-, employment B+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $448k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 3.5% in Palm Desert — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
At $2,948/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-S82ACN3NE16RSW
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29