40990 Paxton Dr #7

Rancho Mirage, CA 92270

$449,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,691 sqft · Built 1957 · Condo · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,930/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$800
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,035
• Net cashflow: $185/mo
• Annual: $2,224/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 532 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $113k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $226k; list at $450k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,930/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.