422 Willow Dr

Lochbuie, CO 80603

$300,000D

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,066/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.46%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (18.0% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $246k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#283 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $300k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.2% in Lochbuie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.