45 Blue Springs Cir

Buffalo, MO 65644

$190,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1942 · Other · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-371/mo
• Annual: $-4,448/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (37.2% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#181 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dallas County R-I (town): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #278 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mallory Elem. (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #842 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 715 students, 56% FRL); Buffalo Middle (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #303 of 391 statewide, top 78%, 499 students, 61% FRL); Buffalo High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 568 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.8% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.