45 Blue Springs Cir · Buffalo, MO 65644

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1942 2.60 ac lot $135/sqft · 9% below area Est $254k · 25% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

Key facts

• River front
• Stunning blue spring
• 2.6 beautiful acres

Tags

• RIVER FRONT
• RIVER ACCESS
• 2.6 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• OVERLOOKING THE NIANGUA RIVER
• STUNNING BLUE SPRING
• THREE RELIABLE HEAT SOURCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 220-volt electric service; Electricity connected; Propane available and owned
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential property
• Construction: Concrete construction; Metal roof; Concrete foundation; Built area includes finished below-grade space
• Exterior features: Few trees on lot; Irregular lot with views; Above-ground private pool; Riverfront location

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 1 bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air; Propane heating (owned); Wood heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Finished concrete basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.8% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#181 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dallas County R-I (town): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #278 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mallory Elem. (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #842 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 715 students, 56% FRL); Buffalo Middle (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #303 of 391 statewide, top 78%, 499 students, 61% FRL); Buffalo High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 568 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,284 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,840
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -25.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $79,887
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $253,857
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65644

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $136,360

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-239	-5% $-305	+0% $-371	+5% $-436	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-418	+0% $-371	+5% $-324	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-322	base $-371	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 17 DOM

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $190,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

18. 2026-05-15
    price $190,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

19. 2026-05-14
    listed $219,900 Active 693-char remark
20. 2026-04-09
    price $219,900 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

21. 2026-04-09
    price $219,900

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

22. 2026-03-24
    price $229,900
23. 2025-12-12
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2025-12-12
    historical
25. 2025-12-10
    listed $249,900 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    Looking for Rustic Retreat? Look no further!Cozy home with 2.6 acres overlooking the Niangua River situated right over Blue Spring. Home features three heat sources, wood, electric and propane. Sit in your Livingroom and enjoy the beauty that only God can create.

26. 2006-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$7,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,907
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2906120
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,067
• Composite: 24.19/100
• National rank: #7735
• State rank: #278 of 324 in MO

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #9481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,965

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,419 people
• By 2030: 14,668 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,045 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 11,341 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 8,096 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,656 · -63.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.3% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.10%
• Current HPI: 304.8718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $190,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $190,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $219,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $249,900 SOMO
• 2006-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.