8511 Little River Rd

Houston, TX 77064

$199,990D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$451
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,454/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $55,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $492 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-890 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frazier El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 618 students, 89% FRL); Cook Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,428 students, 66% FRL); Jersey Village H S (math 50% / reading 59%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,364 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.