8511 Little River Rd · Houston, TX 77064

$199,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1975 7,000 sqft lot Est $231k · 13% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath traditional home that has been lovingly owned by the same owner since the 1980s. This property offers a spacious floor plan, a generous backyard with plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, and an attached 2-car garage. While the home could benefit from some updates and repairs, it presents a wonderful opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. The property is being sold as-is, and the seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• Spacious floor plan
• Generous backyard
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,488; Lot about 7,000 square feet (0.1607 acres); Municipal Utility District and seller disclosures available
• HOA & community: Westbank HOA with an annual fee of $305

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1975; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x13); Bedroom on the first floor (11x12); Bedroom on the first floor (10x11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cook Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,428 students, 66% FRL); Jersey Village H S (math 50% / reading 59%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,364 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $492 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-890 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,615 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8638 Little River Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	2mo	$180,000	$128	83
8430 Bridgefoot Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	8mo	$244,888	$165	82
8619 Upperbrook St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-4%)	10mo	$267,500	$186	80
8502 Rivercross Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+10%)	11mo	$245,000	$150	68
8610 Apothecary Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (0%)	9mo	$190,000	$128	68
8531 Redcliff Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+10%)	9mo	$228,000	$140	67
7911 Bova Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+10%)	2mo	$229,900	$141	66
8354 Carriage Creek Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	8mo	$230,000	$155	62
7822 West Rd	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,370 (-8%)	2mo	$195,000	$142	62
8410 Church Light Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-8%)	0mo	$255,000	$186	55
8334 Carriage Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-8%)	8mo	$239,000	$174	48
8411 Lylewood Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+13%)	10mo	$265,000	$157	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.44% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,804
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,800
• Equity at exit: $61,083

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77064

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,407/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $178,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-65	+0% $-121	+5% $-178	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-191	+0% $-121	+5% $-51	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-70	base $-121	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8418 Mosshang Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,950	$1.65	18d	1	0.68mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	6d	1	0.88mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	2d	1	0.88mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1312	$1,449	$1.10	45d	1	0.88mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1312	$1,449	$1.10	14d	1	0.88mi
9526 Golden Wood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	1.41mi
8989 West Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,044	$1.99	4d	17	1.43mi
8206 Prairie Wind Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1537	$1,945	$1.27	45d	1	1.43mi
8920 West Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,024	$1.43	45d	1	1.50mi
8920 West Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,609	$1.29	25d	1	1.50mi
8920 West Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,024	$1.43	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 476-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,407 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,407 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,407
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,591
• Household income: $81,658
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1589.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 15% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 35% Vietnamese 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.44%
• Current HPI: 238.9456
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,990 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,407 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.