67 Rock Creek Ten

Adair, OK 74332

$149,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,269/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#56 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Adair (rural): math 37% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #43 of 270 in OK (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bernita Hughes Es (math 50% / reading 31%, grade F, #98 of 845 statewide, top 12%, 522 students, 0% FRL); Adair Ms (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 237 students, 0% FRL); Adair Hs (math 44% / reading 34%, grade F, #37 of 447 statewide, top 9%, 282 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 43% district-wide (43 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Mayes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mayes County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.