67 Rock Creek Ten · Adair, OK 74332

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2014 910 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Boat slips
• Outdoor recreation

Tags

• LAKE-COMMUNITY LIVING
• BOAT SLIPS
• FISHING DOCK
• ENCLOSED HEATED FISHING DOCK
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Less than 1 mile to water
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $80 monthly fee; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Fiber optic available; Satellite internet available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One-story; Faces east; Handicap access; Entry on first level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Gravel driveway; Shed(s); Boat house; Waterfront access to Hudson Lake (boat dock/slip and boat ramp/lift access)

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style kitchen; Refrigerator; Oven; Range/Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with private bath (first level); Additional bedrooms (first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with separate shower; Hall bath with bathtub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Laminate counters; Insulated windows; Vinyl windows; Insulated doors; Accessible doors
• Laundry & utility: Indoor utility room (first level); Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#56 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Adair (rural): math 37% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #43 of 270 in OK (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bernita Hughes Es (math 50% / reading 31%, grade F, #98 of 845 statewide, top 12%, 522 students, 0% FRL); Adair Ms (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 237 students, 0% FRL); Adair Hs (math 44% / reading 34%, grade F, #37 of 447 statewide, top 9%, 282 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 43% district-wide (43 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Mayes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Mayes County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,272 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,296
• Equity at exit: $66,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $47,476
• Equity at exit: $101,272

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74332

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $131,222

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-63	+0% $-106	+5% $-148	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-153	+0% $-106	+5% $-58	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-68	base $-106	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: watercable

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-01-12
   listed $149,900 Active
6. 2021-05-17
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

7. 2021-04-15
   status Pending 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

8. 2021-03-24
   status Active 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

9. 2021-01-28
   status Pending 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

10. 2021-01-18
    price $125,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

11. 2020-07-20
    status Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

12. 2020-06-29
    status Pending 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

13. 2020-05-07
    listed $128,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Excellent lake view 3 bedroom/2 bath, large back deck 16' x 26', with all the lake amenities, shared dock that you have 1 boat slip, shared heated enclosed fishing dock, swim dock. Northern package 6" walls, permanently anchored with concrete and cables. HOA Includes water.

14. 2019-11-15
    historical
15. 2019-09-10
    price $124,000
16. 2019-05-16
    listed $128,000 Active
17. 2008-04-22
    soldstatus $34,000
18. 2008-04-21
    soldstatus $34,000
19. 2008-03-03
    historical
20. 2007-11-19
    listed $34,000
21. 2005-03-10
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 1994-10-10
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $-340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adair
• NCES district ID: 4002460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,838
• Composite: 29.32/100
• National rank: #6549
• State rank: #43 of 270 in OK

Livability — Adair

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #9020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,471
• Population (ZIP): 1,808

Population outlook (Mayes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,941 people
• By 2030: 39,172 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 37,540 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 35,854 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 32,361 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 28,054 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 17% Native American 14% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mayes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.5) · D 20.3% · R 77.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -57.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.5 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.87%
• Current HPI: 302.9067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+328.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $149,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-05-17 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-04-15 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-03-24 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-01-28 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2021-01-18 Price Changed $125,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-07-20 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-06-29 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-05-07 Listed $128,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-11-15 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-09-10 Price Changed $124,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-05-16 Listed $128,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-21 Sold (MLS) $34,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-03-03 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2007-11-19 Listed $34,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,528 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.