4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,271 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 87 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,249/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$26
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$472
Net cashflow
$1,593/mo
Annual
$19,116/yr
Cap rate
70.01%
Cash-on-cash
227.58%
DSCR
11.13
1% rule
7.50%
Cash to close
$8,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $603 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $396 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Florence Howard Elementary School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 488 students, 94% FRL); Calloway Smith Middle School (math 0% / reading 18%, grade F, #235 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 396 students, 96% FRL); John L Leflore Magnet School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 618 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 67% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 70.0% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S9Q1N6F2724AJZ
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29