4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,510 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 177 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,040/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,196
Tax + insurance
−$380
HOA
−$42
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$428
Net cashflow
$-6/mo
Annual
$-75/yr
Cap rate
6.26%
Cash-on-cash
-0.12%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$63,837
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $228k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-75/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (0.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (10.5% below list).
It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11305% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S9TQKP3Q4ZM76S
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29