1030 Timber Ln

Freeland, WA 98249

$425,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-17/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-17/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (22.7% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $329k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#367 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Whidbey School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #87 of 291 in WA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Whidbey Elementary (571 students, 35% FRL); South Whidbey Middle (204 students, 41% FRL); South Whidbey High School (384 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.9% in Freeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.