7390 E Stagecoach Pass --

Carefree, AZ 85377

$2,299,999D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,431 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,061
• Tax + insurance: −$3,900
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,875
• Net cashflow: $-5,146/mo
• Annual: $-61,749/yr
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.46%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $644,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-62k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.56M (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.37M (40.5% below list).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.37M (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $157k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $141k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $950k; list at $2.30M implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$251k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.