7390 E Stagecoach Pass -- · Carefree, AZ 85377

$2,299,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1989 1.53 ac lot $519/sqft · 9% above area Est $2538k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into over 5,000 sq. ft. of versatile and dramatic living space with soaring ceilings and breathtaking mountain views. Black Mountain graces your windows, framing your entertainer's backyard perfectly. The open floor plan flows effortlessly, while tongue-and-groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character throughout. The expansive master suite offers panoramic mountain vistas, complemented by three additional bedrooms downstairs, including one ensuite, plus a detached casita for guests or a private office. Enjoy the convenience of a three-car garage with plenty of driveway space for additional parking. Recent upgrades include a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated plumbing and lighting fixtures, new hardwood floors, a remodeled master closet, all-new landscaping, and updated pool equipment. This home seamlessly combines elegance, functionality, and mountain charm perfect for those seeking a Carefree lifestyle.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Detached casita
• New roof

Tags

• ENTERTAINER'S BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PANORAMIC MOUNTAIN VISTAS
• DETACHED CASITA
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-62k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.56M (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.37M (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.37M (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $157k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $141k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$251k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $950k; list at $2.30M implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,369,046 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.46%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,538,480
• List price: $2,299,999
• Delta: -9.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7078 E Stagecoach Pass Rd	0.44mi	4/4.0 (-1)	4,477 (+1%)	13mo	$2,900,000	$648	58
36220 N Tom Darlington Dr	0.28mi	4/5.5 (-1)	4,258 (-4%)	11mo	$1,050,000	$247	56
7868 E Stagecoach Pass	0.68mi	5/3.5	4,478 (+1%)	21mo	$1,775,000	$396	47
37267 NE Greythorn Cir	0.72mi	5/4.5	4,658 (+5%)	10mo	$1,600,000	$343	43
2021 E Smoketree Dr	0.27mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,960 (-11%)	23mo	$1,845,000	$466	42
1084 N Boulder Dr	0.68mi	5/5.0	5,020 (+13%)	2mo	$2,400,000	$478	36
37021 N Lazy Burro Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,813 (-14%)	3mo	$2,375,000	$623	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $354,518
• Equity at exit: $1,464,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $1,295,230
• Equity at exit: $2,673,277

Cash invested: $644,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,061
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,875 /mo · $34,500/yr
• Insurance: −$958
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,875
• Net cashflow: $-5,146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,204

Max offer price $1,555,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,556	-5% $-4,351	+0% $-5,146	+5% $-5,941	+10% $-6,735
Rent	-10% $-6,227	-5% $-5,687	+0% $-5,146	+5% $-4,605	+10% $-4,064
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,987	-0.5pp $-4,561	base $-5,146	+0.5pp $-5,742	+1.0pp $-6,348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $575,000
• Closing costs: $69,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34640 N 79th Way Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	4853	$18,000	$3.71	45d	1	1.23mi
6945 E Stevens Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	4.0	3583	$12,000	$3.35	45d	1	1.40mi
8193 E Sand Flower Dr Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.5	3760	$10,000	$2.66	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,299,999 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,299,999 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,299,999 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,299,999 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,299,999 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,299,999 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,299,999 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $2,299,999 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Step into over 5,000 sq. ft. of versatile and dramatic living space with soaring ceilings and breathtaking mountain views. Black Mountain graces your windows, framing your entertainer's backyard perfectly. The open floor plan flows effortlessly, while tongue-and-groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character throughout. The expansive master suite offers panoramic mountain vistas, complemented by three additional bedrooms downstairs, including one ensuite, plus a detached casita for guests or a private office. Enjoy the convenience of a three-car garage with plenty of driveway space for additional parking. Recent upgrades include a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated plumbing and lighting fixtures, new hardwood floors, a remodeled master closet, all-new landscaping, and updated pool equipment. This home seamlessly combines elegance, functionality, and mountain charm perfect for those seeking a Carefree lifestyle.

17. 2026-03-03
    price $2,345,999 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Step into over 5,000 sq. ft. of versatile and dramatic living space with soaring ceilings and breathtaking mountain views. Black Mountain graces your windows, framing your entertainer's backyard perfectly. The open floor plan flows effortlessly, while tongue-and-groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character throughout. The expansive master suite offers panoramic mountain vistas, complemented by three additional bedrooms downstairs, including one ensuite, plus a detached casita for guests or a private office. Enjoy the convenience of a three-car garage with plenty of driveway space for additional parking. Recent upgrades include a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated plumbing and lighting fixtures, new hardwood floors, a remodeled master closet, all-new landscaping, and updated pool equipment. This home seamlessly combines elegance, functionality, and mountain charm perfect for those seeking a Carefree lifestyle.

18. 2025-11-14
    listed $2,395,000 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Step into over 5,000 sq. ft. of versatile and dramatic living space with soaring ceilings and breathtaking mountain views. Black Mountain graces your windows, framing your entertainer's backyard perfectly. The open floor plan flows effortlessly, while tongue-and-groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character throughout. The expansive master suite offers panoramic mountain vistas, complemented by three additional bedrooms downstairs, including one ensuite, plus a detached casita for guests or a private office. Enjoy the convenience of a three-car garage with plenty of driveway space for additional parking. Recent upgrades include a new roof, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated plumbing and lighting fixtures, new hardwood floors, a remodeled master closet, all-new landscaping, and updated pool equipment. This home seamlessly combines elegance, functionality, and mountain charm perfect for those seeking a Carefree lifestyle.

19. 2020-04-15
    soldstatus $950,000 Closed 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Great opportunity to enjoy the Carefree lifestyle in this amazing home with soaring ceilings and over 5000 sq feet. Black Mountain stands guard in your windows and overlooks your entertainer's yard. Open floor plan is versatile and dramatic! Tongue and Groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character! Huge master bedroom up enjoys the beautiful northern mountain back drop. Three bedrooms down stairs - one ensuite, detached casita. Three car garage and lots of driveway space for additional parking. Seller intends to do a 1031 exchange at no cost or additional time to the buyer.

20. 2020-03-09
    status Pending 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Great opportunity to enjoy the Carefree lifestyle in this amazing home with soaring ceilings and over 5000 sq feet. Black Mountain stands guard in your windows and overlooks your entertainer's yard. Open floor plan is versatile and dramatic! Tongue and Groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character! Huge master bedroom up enjoys the beautiful northern mountain back drop. Three bedrooms down stairs - one ensuite, detached casita. Three car garage and lots of driveway space for additional parking. Seller intends to do a 1031 exchange at no cost or additional time to the buyer.

21. 2020-03-05
    listed $895,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Great opportunity to enjoy the Carefree lifestyle in this amazing home with soaring ceilings and over 5000 sq feet. Black Mountain stands guard in your windows and overlooks your entertainer's yard. Open floor plan is versatile and dramatic! Tongue and Groove beamed ceilings add warmth and character! Huge master bedroom up enjoys the beautiful northern mountain back drop. Three bedrooms down stairs - one ensuite, detached casita. Three car garage and lots of driveway space for additional parking. Seller intends to do a 1031 exchange at no cost or additional time to the buyer.

22. 2016-03-09
    historical
23. 2015-12-18
    listed $899,000 Active
24. 2013-04-08
    historical
25. 2013-03-15
    price $749,000
26. 2013-02-27
    price $774,000
27. 2013-02-06
    price $799,000
28. 2013-01-25
    price $819,000
29. 2013-01-21
    price $839,000
30. 2012-12-26
    price $844,000
31. 2012-12-03
    price $849,000
32. 2012-11-12
    price $859,000
33. 2012-10-07
    status Active
34. 2012-09-13
    historical
35. 2012-09-06
    price $869,900
36. 2012-08-04
    listed $899,000 Active
37. 2012-07-25
    historical
38. 2012-06-30
    price $925,000
39. 2012-05-31
    price $865,000
40. 2012-05-11
    price $898,000
41. 2012-03-06
    price $899,000
42. 2012-02-16
    listed $925,000 Active
43. 2004-01-06
    soldstatus $635,000
44. 2004-01-06
    soldstatus $635,000
45. 2003-02-17
    listed $685,000
46. 1995-03-16
    soldstatus $550,000
47. 1991-08-26
    soldstatus $345,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $164,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$128,836
• − Property taxes: −$34,500
• − Insurance: −$12,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,143
• − Management: −$13,143
• − Depreciation: −$66,909
• Taxable loss: −$104,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25,090
• After-tax cash flow: $-36,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $2,299,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $2,345,999 ARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $2,395,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-15 Sold (MLS) $950,000 ARMLS
• 2020-03-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-03-05 Listed $895,000 ARMLS
• 2016-03-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-12-18 Listed $899,000 ARMLS
• 2013-04-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-03-15 Price Changed $749,000 ARMLS
• 2013-02-27 Price Changed $774,000 ARMLS
• 2013-02-06 Price Changed $799,000 ARMLS
• 2013-01-25 Price Changed $819,000 ARMLS
• 2013-01-21 Price Changed $839,000 ARMLS
• 2012-12-26 Price Changed $844,000 ARMLS
• 2012-12-03 Price Changed $849,000 ARMLS
• 2012-11-12 Price Changed $859,000 ARMLS
• 2012-10-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2012-09-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-09-06 Price Changed $869,900 ARMLS
• 2012-08-04 Listed $899,000 ARMLS
• 2012-07-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-06-30 Price Changed $925,000 ARMLS
• 2012-05-31 Price Changed $865,000 ARMLS
• 2012-05-11 Price Changed $898,000 ARMLS
• 2012-03-06 Price Changed $899,000 ARMLS
• 2012-02-16 Listed $925,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $635,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-06 Sold (MLS) $635,000 ARMLS
• 2003-02-17 Listed $685,000 ARMLS
• 1995-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,502 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.