13812 SW Canyon Dr

Crooked River Ranch, OR 97760

$399,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · Built 1997 · MultiFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$844
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,667/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $393k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $399k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.4% in Crooked River Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.