13812 SW Canyon Dr · Crooked River Ranch, OR 97760

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1997 1.10 ac lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $419k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2,200+ sq ft home situated on 1.10 acres in the Crooked River Ranch Community. Light, bright, and exceptionally clean, this property offer the perfect blend of comfort, space and Central Oregon charm. The home boasts an open and inviting layout with abundant natural light. The home features spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and two large family rooms that are ideal for entertaining, multi-generational living or creating family memories. The oversized lot provides room to breathe, with plenty of space for all of you outdoor endeavors. Crooked River Ranch comes complete with a golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena, amongst so much more! Call your favorite realtor today for a private tour!

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $393k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.4% in Crooked River Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $399k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $393,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,686
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-24,036
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $31,165
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97760

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,729/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$844
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,210

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,020
Total (2 units)			$4,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $399,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $399,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    status Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2,200+ sq ft home situated on 1.10 acres in the Crooked River Ranch Community. Light, bright, and exceptionally clean, this property offer the perfect blend of comfort, space and Central Oregon charm. The home boasts an open and inviting layout with abundant natural light. The home features spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and two large family rooms that are ideal for entertaining, multi-generational living or creating family memories. The oversized lot provides room to breathe, with plenty of space for all of you outdoor endeavors. Crooked River Ranch comes complete with a golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena, amongst so much more! Call your favorite realtor today for a private tour!

11. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2,200+ sq ft home situated on 1.10 acres in the Crooked River Ranch Community. Light, bright, and exceptionally clean, this property offer the perfect blend of comfort, space and Central Oregon charm. The home boasts an open and inviting layout with abundant natural light. The home features spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and two large family rooms that are ideal for entertaining, multi-generational living or creating family memories. The oversized lot provides room to breathe, with plenty of space for all of you outdoor endeavors. Crooked River Ranch comes complete with a golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena, amongst so much more! Call your favorite realtor today for a private tour!

12. 2026-04-24
    price $399,000 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2,200+ sq ft home situated on 1.10 acres in the Crooked River Ranch Community. Light, bright, and exceptionally clean, this property offer the perfect blend of comfort, space and Central Oregon charm. The home boasts an open and inviting layout with abundant natural light. The home features spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and two large family rooms that are ideal for entertaining, multi-generational living or creating family memories. The oversized lot provides room to breathe, with plenty of space for all of you outdoor endeavors. Crooked River Ranch comes complete with a golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena, amongst so much more! Call your favorite realtor today for a private tour!

13. 2026-03-15
    price $409,000 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2,200+ sq ft home situated on 1.10 acres in the Crooked River Ranch Community. Light, bright, and exceptionally clean, this property offer the perfect blend of comfort, space and Central Oregon charm. The home boasts an open and inviting layout with abundant natural light. The home features spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and two large family rooms that are ideal for entertaining, multi-generational living or creating family memories. The oversized lot provides room to breathe, with plenty of space for all of you outdoor endeavors. Crooked River Ranch comes complete with a golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena, amongst so much more! Call your favorite realtor today for a private tour!

14. 2025-11-17
    listed $419,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2,200+ sq ft home situated on 1.10 acres in the Crooked River Ranch Community. Light, bright, and exceptionally clean, this property offer the perfect blend of comfort, space and Central Oregon charm. The home boasts an open and inviting layout with abundant natural light. The home features spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and two large family rooms that are ideal for entertaining, multi-generational living or creating family memories. The oversized lot provides room to breathe, with plenty of space for all of you outdoor endeavors. Crooked River Ranch comes complete with a golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena, amongst so much more! Call your favorite realtor today for a private tour!

15. 2025-10-10
    historical
16. 2025-09-18
    price $439,000
17. 2025-07-27
    status Active
18. 2025-06-02
    historical
19. 2025-04-21
    price $464,000
20. 2025-02-21
    listed $494,900 Active
21. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus $153,000
22. 2022-11-08
    historical
23. 2022-08-31
    listed $432,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,729 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,870 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,141/yr (+$95/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,729
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,858
• − Management: −$3,858
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $1,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$295
• After-tax cash flow: $7,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redmond SD 2J
• NCES district ID: 4110350
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 28.72/100
• National rank: #6682
• State rank: #28 of 58 in OR

Livability — Crooked River Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crooked River Ranch, OR
• City population: 8,185
• Population (ZIP): 8,185

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.04%
• Current HPI: 470.078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-04-30 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $399,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $409,000 MLSCO
• 2025-11-17 Listed $419,000 MLSCO
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $439,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-27 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $464,000 MLSCO
• 2025-02-21 Listed $494,900 MLSCO
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-08 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2022-08-31 Listed $432,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,729 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.