6540 Ginny Ln

Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$114,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $981/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-53/mo
• Annual: $-635/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-635/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ste. Genevieve County R-II (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Ste. Genevieve County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ste. Genevieve County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.