6540 Ginny Ln · Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · Other public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1980 0.77 ac lot $104/sqft · 43% below area Est $202k · 43% under $63/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This listing has tons of potential to make it your home or weekend get-a-way!! The spacious property sits on 4 lots with a large carport & separate sheds for extra storage or workspace. Come enjoy Lake life at The Goose Creek Lake Subdivision. It is a great community with tons of additional amenities to enjoy. Although the home could use some updates and TLC it can be lived-in & used right away. (Everything seems to work and is currently usable) The current owner has never occupied the home and is limited on info about it. The previous occupant fell behind on regular maintenance due to unfortunate circumstances therefore this home is being sold AS-IS. This listing is worth scheduling a showing to come check it out. Boating season is almost here & this listing is ready for its new owner.

Key facts

• 0.77 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-635/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ste. Genevieve County R-II (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Ste. Genevieve County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Ste. Genevieve County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,124 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,481
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -43.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $141
• Equity at exit: $40,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $19,155
• Equity at exit: $55,106

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63036

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $105,559

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-20	+0% $-53	+5% $-85	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-92	+0% $-53	+5% $-14	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-24	base $-53	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   price $114,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $124,900 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    This listing has tons of potential to make it your home or weekend get-a-way!! The spacious property sits on 4 lots with a large carport & separate sheds for extra storage or workspace. Come enjoy Lake life at The Goose Creek Lake Subdivision. It is a great community with tons of additional amenities to enjoy. Although the home could use some updates and TLC it can be lived-in & used right away. (Everything seems to work and is currently usable) The current owner has never occupied the home and is limited on info about it. The previous occupant fell behind on regular maintenance due to unfortunate circumstances therefore this home is being sold AS-IS. This listing is worth scheduling a showing to come check it out. Boating season is almost here & this listing is ready for its new owner.

18. 2026-04-15
    historical $124,900 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    This listing has tons of potential to make it your home or weekend get-a-way!! The spacious property sits on 4 lots with a large carport & separate sheds for extra storage or workspace. Come enjoy Lake life at The Goose Creek Lake Subdivision. It is a great community with tons of additional amenities to enjoy. Although the home could use some updates and TLC it can be lived-in & used right away. (Everything seems to work and is currently usable) The current owner has never occupied the home and is limited on info about it. The previous occupant fell behind on regular maintenance due to unfortunate circumstances therefore this home is being sold AS-IS. This listing is worth scheduling a showing to come check it out. Boating season is almost here & this listing is ready for its new owner.

19. 2025-12-05
    soldstatus
20. 2025-06-29
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 92.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$2,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $-12/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ste. Genevieve County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2929370
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,013
• Composite: 40.83/100
• National rank: #3632
• State rank: #59 of 324 in MO

Livability — Goose Creek Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goose Creek Lake, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,121

Population outlook (Ste. Genevieve County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,453 people
• By 2030: 17,119 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 16,361 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 15,719 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 14,849 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 13,504 · -22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Lithuanian 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ste. Genevieve

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.0) · D 26.9% · R 71.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -59.2pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -45.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.0 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 60.8458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-29 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.