527 Kickapoo Dr

Anahuac, TX 77514

$275,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,445/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-154/mo
• Annual: $-1,851/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (11.1% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $244k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#365 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anahuac ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anahuac El (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 713 students, 64% FRL); Anahuac Middle (math 52% / reading 46%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 326 students, 61% FRL); Anahuac H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 454 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Anahuac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.