3836 Rs County Road 1605

East Tawakoni, TX 75453

$251,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,321
• Tax + insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-518/mo
• Annual: $-6,211/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $70,532

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (36.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (35.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rains El (437 students, 68% FRL); Rains J H (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 425 students, 66% FRL); Rains H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 507 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.