3836 Rs County Road 1605 · East Tawakoni, TX 75453

$251,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1984 1.99 ac lot $182/sqft · 19% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awesome country property in Rains ISD. This home has a workshop with water and electricity. Plenty of parking, storage and circular driveway in addition to the detached carport. Large deck off the back of the home great for outdoor entertaining, or just relaxing. Pretty views of the countryside and abundant wildlife. The interior offers an open floorplan, granite countertops, lots of natural light, fireplace, neutral colors and more. Come see it before it’s gone.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Detached carport
• Open floorplan

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED CARPORT
• LARGE DECK
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (36.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rains El (437 students, 68% FRL); Rains J H (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 425 students, 66% FRL); Rains H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 507 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,472 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $581,394
• List price: $251,900
• Delta: -56.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $104,289
• Equity at exit: $226,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $333,156
• Equity at exit: $489,386

Cash invested: $70,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,321
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,483/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,278

Max offer price $160,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-375	-5% $-446	+0% $-518	+5% $-589	+10% $-660
Rent	-10% $-646	-5% $-582	+0% $-518	+5% $-453	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-391	-0.5pp $-453	base $-518	+0.5pp $-583	+1.0pp $-649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,975
• Closing costs: $7,557
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $251,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $251,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $251,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $251,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $251,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $251,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-04-14
    listed $264,500 Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Awesome country property in Rains ISD. This home has a workshop with water and electricity. Plenty of parking, storage and circular driveway in addition to the detached carport. Large deck off the back of the home great for outdoor entertaining, or just relaxing. Pretty views of the countryside and abundant wildlife. The interior offers an open floorplan, granite countertops, lots of natural light, fireplace, neutral colors and more. Come see it before it’s gone.

19. 2025-10-29
    price $285,000
20. 2025-10-26
    status Active
21. 2025-10-17
    status Pending
22. 2025-09-21
    historical
23. 2025-09-19
    listed $295,000 Active
24. 2025-08-28
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2025-08-21
    status Active
26. 2025-08-15
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2025-08-01
    price $290,000
28. 2025-07-13
    price $300,000
29. 2025-07-08
    price $310,000
30. 2025-06-13
    status Active
31. 2025-05-28
    historical Active Option Contract
32. 2025-05-01
    price $325,000
33. 2025-04-23
    price $315,000
34. 2025-04-07
    price $325,000
35. 2025-03-21
    listed $340,000 Active
36. 2023-04-18
    soldstatus Closed
37. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus
38. 2023-03-20
    listed $300,000
39. 2023-03-16
    status Pending
40. 2023-03-10
    historical Active Option Contract
41. 2023-03-09
    price $315,000
42. 2023-03-03
    listed $300,000 Active
43. 2003-02-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,610 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,110
• − Property taxes: −$4,483
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$7,328
• Taxable loss: −$10,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,598
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rains ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,836
• Composite: 22.46/100
• National rank: #8106
• State rank: #697 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Rains County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,516 people
• By 2030: 11,610 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 11,622 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,329 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 10,390 · -9.8%
• By 2100: 8,809 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rains

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.9) · D 13.3% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.5pp · 2024: -72.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.9 2020: R+71.2 2016: R+71.3 2012: R+61.8 2008: R+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $264,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-09-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-08-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-08-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-04-13 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2023-03-20 Listed $300,000 GTAR
• 2023-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-03-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-03 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2003-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,483 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.