13594 Highway 8 Business Spc 15

Lakeside, CA 92040

$173,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 877 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $1,088/mo
• Annual: $13,054/yr
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.95%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $48,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $173k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.