13594 Highway 8 Business Spc 15 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$173,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 877 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2016 Est $157k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home tucked away on a quiet corner lot with a spacious yard, mature shade trees, and exceptional privacy. Located in a peaceful community set back on a hill away from the everyday chaos, this home offers a serene setting while still being conveniently close to everything you need. This move-in ready home features a bright open floorplan with generous living spaces and well-sized bedrooms. Recent upgrades include brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, fresh interior and exterior paint, stainless steel appliances, refinished cabinetry, updated fixtures, and much more. The thoughtfully designed layout creates a seamless flow perfect for bo

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Quiet corner lot
• Peaceful community

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• QUIET CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• EXCEPTIONAL PRIVACY
• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Ridgecrest Community; Senior community; Subdivision: Lakeside (LK)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop and gas range; Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Ice maker; Range; Exhaust fan; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Free-Standing Range; Gas Range; Gas Cooktop; Range; Oven; Exhaust Fan; Ice Maker; Freezer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,405 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.95%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,983
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13594 Highway 8 Business #48	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	920 (+5%)	6mo	$170,000	$185	82
13490 Highway 8 Business Spc 24	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+10%)	1mo	$133,500	$139	72
13594 Highway 8 Business #33	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	987 (+12%)	3mo	$177,000	$179	72
13490 Highway 8 Business SPC 32	0.14mi	3/2.0	850 (-3%)	23mo	$189,000	$222	69
13594 Highway 8 Business #42	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+10%)	12mo	$193,000	$201	68
13490 Highway 8 Business Spc 14	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+10%)	6mo	$98,000	$102	64
13490 Highway 8 Business #50	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-9%)	10mo	$180,000	$225	61
13594 HWY 8 BUS #18	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+10%)	22mo	$129,000	$134	61
9041 El Dorado Pkwy Spc 51	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-9%)	4mo	$130,000	$163	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $42,739
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $132,603
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $1,088

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8410 Los Coches Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,239	$2.49	1d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $173,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $173,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $173,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $173,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $173,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   listed $173,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,315 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 53.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable income: $10,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,602
• After-tax cash flow: $10,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $173,000 SDMLS