9366 Ranger Trl

Dobbins, CA 95962

$198,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-176/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-176/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#1,405 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.