43885 Arancia Way

Indio, CA 92203

$427,888D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,886 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 302 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,244
• Tax + insurance: −$784
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $-710/mo
• Annual: $-8,524/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.11%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $119,809

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $428k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-710 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 14405% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?