18089 NE Arnold Kelly Rd

Hosford, FL 32334

$145,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,452/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty (rural): math 55% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #21 of 73 in FL (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hosford Elementary Junior High School (math 58% / reading 54%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 355 students, 39% FRL); Liberty County High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #109 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 341 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.