18089 NE Arnold Kelly Rd · Hosford, FL 32334

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1999 0.48 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single wide offers a spacious . 48-acre lot with a 24x24 storage shed and carport. New HVAC system was installed in November 2025. New roof installed June 2026. Wheelchair ramp provides easy access. While this home requires a little TLC, It presents a great opportunity for the right buyer to create equity and enjoy country living. All measurements are approx and will need to be verified. Some photos are virtually staged.

Key facts

• Carport
• Spacious lot
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• CARPORT
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF
• WHEELCHAIR RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Residency zoned for single-family; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Mobile home construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Two living areas; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty (rural): math 55% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #21 of 73 in FL (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hosford Elementary Junior High School (math 58% / reading 54%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 355 students, 39% FRL); Liberty County High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #109 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 341 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,523 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,766
• Equity at exit: $68,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $52,648
• Equity at exit: $107,923

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32334

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $127,487

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-71	+0% $-121	+5% $-171	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-165	+0% $-121	+5% $-77	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-84	base $-121	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 454-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$960
• After-tax cash flow: $-493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty
• NCES district ID: 1201170
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,647
• Composite: 46.26/100
• National rank: #2482
• State rank: #21 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hosford

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #13302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,749

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,331 people
• By 2030: 8,335 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 8,300 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 8,259 · -0.9%
• By 2075: 7,624 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 6,041 · -27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+60.4 2016: R+57.4 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Current HPI: 167.5874
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $140,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $150,000 CPARMLS