1401 El Norte Pkwy #267

San Marcos, CA 92069

$415,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,201/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$222
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-187/mo
• Annual: $-2,244/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 115 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $415k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.