4 Birchwood Ct Unit 3J

Mineola, NY 11501

$349,999C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1960 · Condo · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $398/mo
• Annual: $4,773/yr
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in NY, #868 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Mineola Union Free School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #113 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jackson Avenue School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 417 students, 27% FRL); Mineola Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #147 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 636 students, 32% FRL); Mineola High School (math 92% / reading 80%, grade A, #347 of 1,100 statewide, top 32%, 1,078 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $350k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.