4 Birchwood Ct Unit 3J · Mineola, NY 11501

$349,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 19 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious "Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

Key facts

• Gas cooking
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in NY, #868 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Mineola Union Free School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #113 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jackson Avenue School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 417 students, 27% FRL); Mineola Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #147 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 636 students, 32% FRL); Mineola High School (math 92% / reading 80%, grade A, #347 of 1,100 statewide, top 32%, 1,078 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $350k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,749 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-24,457
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $40,841
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11501

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,062

Max offer price $349,999

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 3rd St Unit 921 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$3,750	$5.36	43d	1	0.05mi
1 3rd St Unit 1033 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$3,900	$5.57	43d	1	0.05mi
78 Roslyn Rd Unit 202 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,950	$2.81	4d	1	0.16mi
140 Old Country Rd Mineola, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$3,574	$3.92	1d	13	0.23mi
162 2nd St Unit 4 Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$3,600	$4.80	12d	1	0.29mi
101 Searing Ave Unit 301 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1093	$4,600	$4.21	43d	1	0.31mi
101 Searing Ave Unit 210 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1085	$4,900	$4.52	43d	1	0.31mi
101 Searing Ave Unit 502 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	998	$4,400	$4.41	10d	1	0.31mi
119 Searing Ave Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$4,028	$4.26	1d	13	0.32mi
116 Searing Ave Unit PHN418 Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	831	$4,215	$5.07	5d	1	0.34mi
116 Searing Ave Unit N322 Mineola, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,435	$4.03	2d	1	0.34mi
101 Clinton Ave Unit 1G Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	43d	1	0.39mi
147 Main St Unit 3B Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	1100	$3,300	$3.00	43d	1	0.39mi
1 3rd Ave Mineola, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$4,550	$3.99	1d	5	0.46mi
160 Garfield Ave Unit 1 Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,450	$3.45	13d	1	0.46mi
100 Lincoln Ave Apt 14A Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$2,998	$3.33	24d	1	0.49mi
203 Willis Ave Apt 3E Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,200	$3.38	43d	1	0.50mi
2 Laurel Dr Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	641	$2,848	$4.44	1d	15	0.51mi
101 Jackson Ave Unit 2G Mineola, NY	2.0	1.0	969	$3,250	$3.35	24d	1	0.53mi
269 Willis Ave Unit N Mineola, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	13d	1	0.68mi
365 Stewart Ave Garden City, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$3,220	$3.11	1d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-15
   listed $349,999 Active
3. 2014-11-26
   soldstatus $145,000 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Spacious " Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!

4. 2014-11-26
   soldstatus $145,000 Closed 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Spacious " Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!

5. 2014-11-02
   status Under Contract 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Spacious " Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!

6. 2014-11-01
   historical 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Spacious " Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!

7. 2014-09-08
   price $154,000 Price Change 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Spacious " Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!

8. 2014-07-09
   listed $159,000 New 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Spacious "Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

9. 2014-07-09
   listed $154,000 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Spacious "Madison" One Bedroom Apartment. Eastern View Overlooking Courtyard. Birchwood Court Has 24 Hr. Security, Immaculate Laundry, Playground And Village Amenities Including Village Pool, Permit Parking At Lirr And Library. This Spacious Apartment Has Been Painted! Carpets Have Been Cleaned!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,423
• − Management: −$3,423
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $4,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineola Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3619500
• Math proficiency: 71% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $84,012
• Composite: 62.64/100
• National rank: #676
• State rank: #113 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #868

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineola, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 21,641
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,641
• Household income: $137,665
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 489.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 6% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Other Indo-European 12% Spanish 11% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -600.19%
• Current HPI: 327.4674
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listed $349,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-26 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MLSLI
• 2014-11-26 Sold (MLS) $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-02 Pending — MLSLI
• 2014-11-01 Delisted — MLSLI
• 2014-09-08 Price Changed $154,000 MLSLI
• 2014-07-09 Listed $159,000 MLSLI
• 2014-07-09 Listed $154,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid