509 Covey Cir

Dothan, AL 36305

$149,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $366/mo
• Annual: $4,397/yr
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (rural): math 25% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #38 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rehobeth Elementary School (math 51% / reading 69%, grade B-, #61 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,174 students, 58% FRL); Rehobeth Middle School (math 22% / reading 54%, grade F, #69 of 257 statewide, top 27%, 626 students, 58% FRL); Rehobeth High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 788 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.