509 Covey Cir · Dothan, AL 36305

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2000 0.75 ac lot $84/sqft · 41% above area Est $107k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers a feel of the country on nearly one acre. Located in a quiet neighborhood just minutes to the city. Lot has big trees that offers a great deal of shade. Nice open kitchen and split bedroom floor plan. It features a living room and den with cozy wood burning fireplace, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Home also has features tongue and groove hardwood floors in living room, kitchen, dining room and den. Tile in guest bathroom. Nice backyard! This is a must see at a great price!

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Back yard privacy
• Screened porch

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• SCREENED PORCH
• BACK YARD PRIVACY
• POOL
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 covered spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential manufactured/modular home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Above-ground private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (rural): math 25% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #38 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rehobeth Elementary School (math 51% / reading 69%, grade B-, #61 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,174 students, 58% FRL); Rehobeth Middle School (math 22% / reading 54%, grade F, #69 of 257 statewide, top 27%, 626 students, 58% FRL); Rehobeth High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 788 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,516
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 40.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Covey Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+6%)	2mo	$110,000	$58	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,028
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $28,856
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36305

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1012 Trawick Rd Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,249	$0.76	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $149,900 Active 272-char remark
18. 2021-07-15
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2020-05-06
    soldstatus $54,000
20. 2017-11-06
    soldstatus $37,500 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    This home offers a feel of the country on nearly one acre. Located in a quiet neighborhood just minutes to the city. Lot has big trees that offers a great deal of shade. Nice open kitchen and split bedroom floor plan. It features a living room and den with cozy wood burning fireplace, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Home also has features tongue and groove hardwood floors in living room, kitchen, dining room and den. Tile in guest bathroom. Nice backyard! This is a must see at a great price!

21. 2017-08-14
    listed $50,000 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    This home offers a feel of the country on nearly one acre. Located in a quiet neighborhood just minutes to the city. Lot has big trees that offers a great deal of shade. Nice open kitchen and split bedroom floor plan. It features a living room and den with cozy wood burning fireplace, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Home also has features tongue and groove hardwood floors in living room, kitchen, dining room and den. Tile in guest bathroom. Nice backyard! This is a must see at a great price!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 74.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,017
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $3,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 0101770
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,530
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6092
• State rank: #38 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 47,783 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,610
• Household income: $84,302
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 331.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 157.3685
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,900 SAMLS
• 2021-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-06 Sold (MLS) $37,500 SAMLS
• 2017-08-14 Listed $50,000 SAMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.