38 Carson Peak Ct

Livermore, CO 80536

$375,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · Built 2013 · Manufactured · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,718/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,786/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $294 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $375k implies a 2173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.