38 Carson Peak Ct · Livermore, CO 80536

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2013 1.78 ac lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the peaceful mountain community of Livermore, 38 Carson Peak Ct offers a rare opportunity to enjoy Colorado living at its finest, where wide-open spaces, fresh mountain air, and stunning natural surroundings create the perfect retreat from city life. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, offering an inviting and functional space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining, with large windows that fill the home with abundant natural light and frame the surrounding scenery. The primary suite provides a comfortable and private escape, offering a relaxing space to unwind at the end of the day while enjoying the quiet and serenity of the mountain setting. An unfini

Key facts

• Large windows
• Mountain community
• Primary suite

Tags

• MOUNTAIN COMMUNITY
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA (Glacier View Road & Rec); Annual association fee $500; Association fee includes trash; Association transfer fee required; Association has reserves

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water (meter installed); No water rights; Propane gas; Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured on land (residential); One story; Main floor entry; Not new — previously owned; Zoning: E; Possible use: Single family
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Cul-de-sac lot; Rolling, sloping lot; Abuts public open space; Meadow nearby; House faces north; Unincorporated area; Minimal flood risk (C rating); Dirt road frontage (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Separate dining room; Window coverings; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $294 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $375k implies a 2173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,760 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-24,461
• Equity at exit: $110,359

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $10,061
• Equity at exit: $133,836

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80536

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,571/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,011

Max offer price $333,994

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $375,000
16. 2026-02-05
    listed $380,000 Active
17. 2026-01-09
    historical
18. 2025-08-27
    price $390,000
19. 2025-07-09
    listed $405,000 Active
20. 2025-07-09
    historical
21. 2025-07-09
    historical
22. 2025-06-16
    price $405,000
23. 2025-06-16
    price $405,000
24. 2025-05-13
    price $415,000
25. 2025-02-06
    listed $420,000 Active
26. 1998-11-01
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,571 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,571 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥86°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,571
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,609
• − Management: −$2,609
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Livermore

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,358

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Portuguese 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Current HPI: 260.6939
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+2172.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $375,000 IRES
• 2026-02-05 Listed $380,000 IRES
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $390,000 IRES
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $405,000 IRES
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $405,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $405,000 IRES
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $415,000 IRES
• 2025-02-06 Listed $420,000 IRES
• 1998-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,571 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.