2809 Thompson Hollow Rd

Margaretville, NY 12455

$525,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$557
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-851/mo
• Annual: $-10,215/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-851 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (40.7% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $311k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#711 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Margaretville Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #734 of 755 in NY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.