7450 E Continental Mountain Estates Dr #1

Cave Creek, AZ 85331

$550,000F

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 6,252 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-666/mo
• Annual: $-7,993/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-666 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $397k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#325 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.5% in Cave Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.