7450 E Continental Mountain Estates Dr #1 · Cave Creek, AZ 85331

$550,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 6,252 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2019 5.24 ac lot $88/sqft · 80% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New co-ownership opportunity by Pacaso: Own one-eighth of Desert Haven, a professionally managed, turnkey home. As you ascend the winding driveway, the setting unfolds into a private desert retreat. Positioned on a secluded mountaintop, the home features glass walls, wraparound balconies, a gourmet kitchen and a resort-style infinity pool. Sleek, contemporary architecture emphasizes seamless indoor-outdoor living, beginning in the spacious great room. The gourmet kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances and a quartz waterfall island. A formal dining area and executive bar provide ample space for entertaining, complemented by a temperature-controlled whiskey and wine room. The primary suite includes a fireplace, wine fridge and direct access to the patio. The en suite bathroom offers a soaking tub, tiled shower, dual sinks and a makeup vanity. An office and game room open to the infinity pool and patio. The residence includes an elevator and is offered fully furnished and professionally decorated.

Key facts

• Glass walls
• Wraparound balconies
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE DESERT RETREAT
• SECLUDED MOUNTAINTOP
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• RESORT-STYLE INFINITY POOL
• GLASS WALLS
• WRAPAROUND BALCONIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-666 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $397k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.5% in Cave Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#325 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,813 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,755,585
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: -80.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-131,488
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-168,883
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85331

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$688 /mo · $8,250/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,811

Max offer price $453,614

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $550,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $550,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $550,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $550,000 Active 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    New co-ownership opportunity by Pacaso: Own one-eighth of Desert Haven, a professionally managed, turnkey home. As you ascend the winding driveway, the setting unfolds into a private desert retreat. Positioned on a secluded mountaintop, the home features glass walls, wraparound balconies, a gourmet kitchen and a resort-style infinity pool. Sleek, contemporary architecture emphasizes seamless indoor-outdoor living, beginning in the spacious great room. The gourmet kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances and a quartz waterfall island. A formal dining area and executive bar provide ample space for entertaining, complemented by a temperature-controlled whiskey and wine room. The primary suite includes a fireplace, wine fridge and direct access to the patio. The en suite bathroom offers a soaking tub, tiled shower, dual sinks and a makeup vanity. An office and game room open to the infinity pool and patio. The residence includes an elevator and is offered fully furnished and professionally decorated.

16. 2026-02-21
    historical
17. 2024-06-24
    listed $599,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$8,250
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,809
• − Management: −$3,809
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$17,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cave Creek

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #25577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Creek, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 31,968
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,968
• Household income: $129,083
• Rent vs Own: 7.4% rent · 92.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.66%
• Current HPI: 316.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $550,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Listed $599,000 ARMLS