1201 Gemini Cir

Portales, NM 88130

$165,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $505/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($505/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (13.7% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#63 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Portales Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #15 of 29 in NM (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valencia Elementary (math 17% / reading 64%, grade F, #33 of 68 statewide, top 48%, 389 students, 62% FRL); Portales Jr High (math 11% / reading 56%, grade F, #9 of 27 statewide, top 31%, 408 students, 60% FRL); Portales High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #78 of 110 statewide, top 74%, 807 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.