1201 Gemini Cir · Portales, NM 88130

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Other · 6 Days on market

Built 1976 8,505 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Ranch Style Home. This home has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and a home office/nursery, your choice! It features a large dining area or 2nd living area, and plenty of bar seating. Newer Flooring throughout, Barn Doors, Granite Counters, and a beverage center and a pantry. MULTIPLE walk in closets. Split floor plan for your sanity!

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Bonus room
• Large patio

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE PATIO
• UPDATED KITCHENS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Built with a foundation appropriate for a one-story home
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced backyard; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range; Water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Forced-air heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($505/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#63 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Portales Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #15 of 29 in NM (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valencia Elementary (math 17% / reading 64%, grade F, #33 of 68 statewide, top 48%, 389 students, 62% FRL); Portales Jr High (math 11% / reading 56%, grade F, #9 of 27 statewide, top 31%, 408 students, 60% FRL); Portales High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #78 of 110 statewide, top 74%, 807 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,475 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,580
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $522
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88130

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,794/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $89	+0% $42	+5% $-5	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-14	+0% $42	+5% $98	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $84	base $42	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1515 S Abilene Ave Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	2462	$1,500	$0.61	45d	1	0.70mi
312 North Avenue B Portales, NM	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	0.91mi
1700 South Avenue B Unit B Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	45d	1	0.94mi
1802 South Avenue A Unit A Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,150	$0.73	45d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 426-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $165,000 Active 426-char remark
3. 2024-04-26
   historical $1,800
4. 2024-04-10
   listed $1,800
5. 2024-04-10
   historical $1,800
6. 2024-03-20
   price $1,800
7. 2024-02-05
   listed $1,995
8. 2023-11-16
   price $259,900
9. 2022-06-15
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (337 chars)

   Beautiful Ranch Style Home. This home has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and a home office/nursery, your choice! It features a large dining area or 2nd living area, and plenty of bar seating. Newer Flooring throughout, Barn Doors, Granite Counters, and a beverage center and a pantry. MULTIPLE walk in closets. Split floor plan for your sanity!

10. 2022-06-15
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Beautiful Ranch Style Home. This home has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and a home office/nursery, your choice! It features a large dining area or 2nd living area, and plenty of bar seating. Newer Flooring throughout, Barn Doors, Granite Counters, and a beverage center and a pantry. MULTIPLE walk in closets. Split floor plan for your sanity!

11. 2022-01-28
    listed $234,000

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Beautiful Ranch Style Home. This home has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and a home office/nursery, your choice! It features a large dining area or 2nd living area, and plenty of bar seating. Newer Flooring throughout, Barn Doors, Granite Counters, and a beverage center and a pantry. MULTIPLE walk in closets. Split floor plan for your sanity!

12. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus
13. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus
14. 2020-10-07
    listed $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,794 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,794
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $1,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portales Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502100
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $36,151
• Composite: 30.52/100
• National rank: #6209
• State rank: #15 of 29 in NM

Livability — Portales

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #13640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portales, NM
• County: Roosevelt County · 17,842 people
• City population: 17,842
• Metro: Portales, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,842
• Household income: $52,434
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,821 people
• By 2030: 15,818 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 13,766 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 12,152 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 9,601 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 8,241 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.4% · R 70.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.72%
• Current HPI: 108.0555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Portales, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $165,000 NMMLS
• 2024-04-26 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-05 Listed for Rent $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $259,900 NMMLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2022-01-28 Listed $234,000 NMMLS
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-21 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-10-07 Listed $129,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,794 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.