9191 Spanish Moss Way

Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$649,900F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax + insurance: −$660
• HOA: −$466
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,177
• Net cashflow: $-108/mo
• Annual: $-1,293/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $181,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $631k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $560k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $650k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,603/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.