21 Mele Ln

Clintondale, NY 12561

$129,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$721
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $399/mo
• Annual: $4,783/yr
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#732 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Paltz Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #70 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lenape Elementary School (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 367 students, 31% FRL); New Paltz Middle School (math 24% / reading 74%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 421 students, 28% FRL); New Paltz Senior High School (math 97% / reading 100%, grade A+, #10 of 1,100 statewide, top 1%, 668 students, 27% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.9% in Clintondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.