21 Mele Ln · Clintondale, NY 12561

$129,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $150k · 14% under $721/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home in Aloha Acres 55+ Community in New Paltz, NY. One of the most desirable and highly sought after communities in the area. Located in a great central location in the Hudson Valley neaby lots of shopping, jobs and healthcare. HOA charge of $721 includes water, sewer, trash & recycling pickup, property tax, school tax, plowing of roads. The home features 3 good sized bedrooms, 2 fulls baths, a kitchen with all appliances included, a Florida room, front & back yards, shed and driveway. Homes for sale in this community are few and far between and sell immediately! Priced to sell quick at $129,500 (below market value based off comparables).

Key facts

• Front and back yards
• Shed
• Driveway

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• FLORIDA ROOM
• FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• SHED
• DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly HOA fee of $721; HOA covers common area maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Community clubhouse and recreation facilities; grounds maintenance and parking provided

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric; Propane; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Sewer connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Updated/remodeled; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Fiberglass insulation; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Awnings; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Back yard; Front yard; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: One-level home (bedrooms on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Crown molding; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Storage; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.9% in Clintondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#732 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Paltz Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #70 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lenape Elementary School (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 367 students, 31% FRL); New Paltz Middle School (math 24% / reading 74%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 421 students, 28% FRL); New Paltz Senior High School (math 97% / reading 100%, grade A+, #10 of 1,100 statewide, top 1%, 668 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $127,557 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Orchid	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	6mo	$120,000	$104	63
3 Lanai Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	11mo	$132,000	$120	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,881
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $38,893
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12561

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$721
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
376 New York 32 New Paltz, NY	2.0	1.5	1232	$2,600	$2.11	44d	1	1.18mi
376 New York 32 Unit 1 New Paltz, NY	2.0	1.5	1232	$2,500	$2.03	14d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $721 · $8,652/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,500 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,500 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $129,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − HOA: −$8,652
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $3,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$826
• After-tax cash flow: $3,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Paltz Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620460
• Math proficiency: 67% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 88% ▲ 28.00%
• Median HH income: $68,223
• Composite: 67.25/100
• National rank: #386
• State rank: #70 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clintondale

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #732
• US rank: #13975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,531

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.50%
• Current HPI: 331.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $129,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $212 · -73.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.