998 Post Oak

Willow Springs, MO 65793

$165,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1994 · Other · Pending · 349 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $52/mo
• Annual: $622/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($622/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Springs Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 525 students, 72% FRL); Willow Springs Middle (math 34% / reading 51%, grade D-, #140 of 391 statewide, top 38%, 369 students, 66% FRL); Willow Springs High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 387 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.