998 Post Oak · Willow Springs, MO 65793

$165,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Other public records · 349 Days on market

Built 1994 1.61 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.61 Acres m/l with Spacious Double Wide with 2 Master Suites creating a total of 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms. The home has a covered front porch and deck, back deck and patio, attached carport, 2 storage buildings and a detached 2 bay garage. This yard has lots of trees and a garden spot. Great location just at edge of Willow Springs off 76 Highway.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached carport
• Storage buildings

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• DETACHED 2 BAY GARAGE
• GARDEN SPOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($622/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Springs Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 525 students, 72% FRL); Willow Springs Middle (math 34% / reading 51%, grade D-, #140 of 391 statewide, top 38%, 369 students, 66% FRL); Willow Springs High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 387 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $133,775 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,498
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,466
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65793

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $99	+0% $52	+5% $5	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $-1	+0% $52	+5% $105	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $94	base $52	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   1.61 Acres m/l with Spacious Double Wide with 2 Master Suites creating a total of 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms. The home has a covered front porch and deck, back deck and patio, attached carport, 2 storage buildings and a detached 2 bay garage. This yard has lots of trees and a garden spot. Great location just at edge of Willow Springs off 76 Highway.

2. 2025-11-19
   price $165,000 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   1.61 Acres m/l with Spacious Double Wide with 2 Master Suites creating a total of 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms. The home has a covered front porch and deck, back deck and patio, attached carport, 2 storage buildings and a detached 2 bay garage. This yard has lots of trees and a garden spot. Great location just at edge of Willow Springs off 76 Highway.

3. 2025-11-14
   price $174,900 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   1.61 Acres m/l with Spacious Double Wide with 2 Master Suites creating a total of 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms. The home has a covered front porch and deck, back deck and patio, attached carport, 2 storage buildings and a detached 2 bay garage. This yard has lots of trees and a garden spot. Great location just at edge of Willow Springs off 76 Highway.

4. 2025-06-04
   listed $179,900 Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   1.61 Acres m/l with Spacious Double Wide with 2 Master Suites creating a total of 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms. The home has a covered front porch and deck, back deck and patio, attached carport, 2 storage buildings and a detached 2 bay garage. This yard has lots of trees and a garden spot. Great location just at edge of Willow Springs off 76 Highway.

5. 2025-05-09
   soldstatus
6. 2023-12-19
   soldstatus
7. 1996-07-19
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 88.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$536
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow Springs R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2932070
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,334
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5207
• State rank: #140 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #16837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Springs, MO
• City population: 5,679
• Population (ZIP): 5,679

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.63%
• Current HPI: 220.7596
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $165,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $174,900 SOMO
• 2025-06-04 Listed $179,900 SOMO
• 2025-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.