3919 El Dorado

New Braunfels, TX 78130

$200,999D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,054
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-962/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $56,280

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $201k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-962/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (11.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek El (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 765 students, 37% FRL); Church Hill Middle (math 64% / reading 60%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 748 students, 29% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12868% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?