207 Mill St

Lone Oak, TX 75453

$49,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $676/mo
• Annual: $8,106/yr
• Cap rate: 22.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.08%
• DSCR: 3.63
• 1% rule: 2.65%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,438 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 2.2% in Lone Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.