207 Mill St · Lone Oak, TX 75453

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1980 0.53 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property was previously in a rent-to-own arrangement that was never completed, leaving a blank canvas for someone ready to bring this property back to life. Whether you are looking for an investment project, rental potential, or a place to customize to your needs, this property offers flexibility and value. Seller is willing to finance, making this a great opportunity for buyers seeking alternative financing options. Conveniently located with small-town charm while still offering easy access to nearby amenities. Very near the beautiful Lake Tawakoni! Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Vintage mobile home
• Half acre property
• 0.53 acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE PROPERTY
• VINTAGE MOBILE HOME
• ATTACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• COUPLE OF OUTBUILDINGS
• NOT FAR FROM LAKE TAWAKONI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 2.2% in Lone Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,438 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.08%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $69,737
• Equity at exit: $44,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.2%
• Equity multiple: 13.51×
• Total profit: $171,587
• Equity at exit: $95,196

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $445

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Windsor St Lone Oak, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,300	$1.29	1d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $49,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    The property was previously in a rent-to-own arrangement that was never completed, leaving a blank canvas for someone ready to bring this property back to life. Whether you are looking for an investment project, rental potential, or a place to customize to your needs, this property offers flexibility and value. Seller is willing to finance, making this a great opportunity for buyers seeking alternative financing options. Conveniently located with small-town charm while still offering easy access to nearby amenities. Very near the beautiful Lake Tawakoni! Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities this property has to offer!

15. 2025-11-29
    listed $55,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    The property was previously in a rent-to-own arrangement that was never completed, leaving a blank canvas for someone ready to bring this property back to life. Whether you are looking for an investment project, rental potential, or a place to customize to your needs, this property offers flexibility and value. Seller is willing to finance, making this a great opportunity for buyers seeking alternative financing options. Conveniently located with small-town charm while still offering easy access to nearby amenities. Very near the beautiful Lake Tawakoni! Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities this property has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$7/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $7,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $6,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lone Oak

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1438
• US rank: #24556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lone Oak, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-29 Listed $55,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $889 · +25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.